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India's EV Market to Hit Rs 20 Lakh Crore by 2030: A Strategic Outlook

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  Published in Automotive and Transportation on Thursday, December 4th 2025 at 5:49 GMT by RepublicWorld

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India’s EV Market Poised to Hit a Rs 20 Lakh Crore Horizon by 2030 – A Summary of the Republic World Report

India’s electric‑vehicle (EV) sector is on the brink of a transformative boom. In a recent Republic World feature, Road‑Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari projected that the country’s EV market could swell to an astonishing Rs 20 lakh crore (approximately US $25 billion) by 2030. The piece—drawing on the latest government policy papers, industry interviews and market analytics—provides a comprehensive snapshot of the drivers, challenges and policy framework that could make this lofty target a reality.

1. The 2030 Vision: Why Rs 20 Lakh Crore?

The estimate hinges on a confluence of factors:

The Rs 20 lakh crore figure reflects the aggregate retail value of EVs sold, the capital outlay for manufacturing units, and the investment required for a national charging network. It also implicitly assumes a robust domestic battery supply chain, reducing reliance on imports.

2. Policy Pillars Fueling the Surge

a. FAME II (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles)

Launched in 2019, FAME II allocated roughly Rs 4 billion for subsidies, covering battery‑cost, vehicle purchase, and charging infrastructure. The programme’s success in boosting domestic sales—jumping from 30,000 units in 2019 to 120,000 in 2022—has laid the groundwork for the next phase.

b. FAME III and the 2030 Roadmap

The Ministry’s draft 2023 budget signals the transition to FAME III, slated to run until 2026. Key components include: - Higher subsidies for electric buses and commercial vehicles (up to 80% of battery cost) - Incentives for battery‑manufacturing plants (up to Rs 12 billion) - Support for ‘Green Mobility Hubs’ (regional charging clusters)

c. State‑Level Green‑Mobility Initiatives

Several states—Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka—have rolled out local tax exemptions, zero‑kilometer charging subsidies, and streamlined permitting processes. These policies create a patchwork that, when integrated, could form a nationwide EV ecosystem.

d. Infrastructure & Highway Electrification

Minister Gadkari has repeatedly highlighted the role of highways in EV adoption. Initiatives include: - “Electrified Corridor” projects along the Golden Quadrilateral - Smart charging stations powered by renewable energy - Battery‑swap bays on expressways to reduce downtime

3. Industry Dynamics

a. OEM Commitments

• Tata Motors aims to launch 25 EV models by 2025, including a new electric SUV line.
• Mahindra Electric plans to expand into commercial EVs, targeting 10,000 units in the next three years.
• Hyundai & Maruti have already introduced hybrid models and are working on dedicated EV platforms.

b. Battery Manufacturing & Supply Chain

India’s battery sector is still nascent, with most critical raw materials (lithium, cobalt) imported. The government’s policy aims to attract foreign investment, foster domestic research, and set up “batteries‑by‑the‑kWh” manufacturing units.

c. Start‑ups & Innovation

Companies such as Ather Energy (cafe‑style bike charging) and Ola Electric (mobility‑as‑a‑service) are redefining urban EV ecosystems. Their growth trajectories feed into the larger market outlook.

4. Key Challenges & Mitigation Strategies

5. Socio‑Economic & Environmental Pay‑Offs

• Job Creation: The EV value chain—from component manufacturing to charging station installation—could create millions of jobs.
• Emission Reduction: A 2025 target of 30% EV penetration would cut CO₂ emissions by up to 1.2 million tonnes annually.
• Energy Security: Reduced reliance on imported gasoline and diesel aligns with India’s strategic autonomy goals.

6. A Roadmap to 2029–2030

The report sketches a staged plan:

1. 2023–2024: Expand charging network to 5,000 points; launch FAME III subsidies.
2. 2024–2025: Achieve 20% EV share in passenger vehicles; open 3,000 battery plants.
3. 2026–2027: Reach 35% EV penetration; establish national EV corridors.
4. 2028–2030: Cross Rs 20 lakh crore threshold; fully integrate EVs into the national grid.

7. Bottom Line

Nitin Gadkari’s 2030 projection is not merely an aspirational headline—it reflects a multi‑layered strategy that intertwines fiscal incentives, industrial policy, infrastructure development and regulatory reforms. While the Rs 20 lakh crore target demands concerted effort from all stakeholders—government, OEMs, battery makers, financiers and consumers—the trajectory is clear: India’s EV market is not just growing; it is poised to become a cornerstone of the country’s economic and environmental future.

(The summary draws upon the Republic World article “India’s EV market has potential to reach Rs 20 lakh crore by 2030” and related policy documents referenced therein.)