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Rivian Shares Could Hit $38-$42 by End-2025: Optimistic Outlook
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Published in Automotive and Transportation on Wednesday, December 3rd 2025 at 8:31 GMT by 24/7 Wall St- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) – Stock‑Price Outlook for 2025 and One‑Year Forecast
Published by 247 Wall Street on December 3 2025
1. The Bottom Line of the Report
The article offers an optimistic yet cautious view of Rivian’s future as an electric‑vehicle (EV) pioneer. The author projects that RIVN’s share price could rise to $38–$42 per share by the end of 2025, up from the current trading range of $25–$28. A one‑year target for 2026 sits roughly at $43–$47, reflecting expectations of continued ramp‑up, new vehicle launches, and growing market share.
2. Key Drivers Behind the 2025 Forecast
| Driver | Impact on Price |
|---|---|
| Production Ramp‑Up | Rivian’s first production plant in Normal, Illinois, is expected to hit 50,000 units per year by Q3 2025. |
| New Model Launches | The 2025 lineup includes the R1S SUV, R1T pickup, and the upcoming R1e electric truck. |
| Supply Chain Stabilization | Battery cell supply contracts with CATL and LG Chem have been extended through 2026, easing previous shortages. |
| Revenue Growth | FY 2025 revenue is projected at $3.8 billion, a 150 % YoY increase, largely from the R1T and R1S. |
| Profitability | EBITDA margin projected at 5 % by end‑2025 after capital expenditure normalization. |
| EV Market Expansion | US EV market to grow 25 % annually, with a forecast of 6 million EV sales by 2026. |
| Government Incentives | Upcoming federal EV tax credits and state rebates will boost demand for Rivian’s models. |
3. Technical Analysis Snapshot
The article cites a 12‑month moving‑average crossover where RIVN’s 200‑day SMA recently moved above the 50‑day SMA, signaling bullish momentum. A support level at $22 and a resistance level at $36 are highlighted, with analysts warning that a break below support could trigger a more significant sell‑off.
4. Fundamental Analysis Highlights
- Revenue & Earnings: Rivian’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY 2024 was $‑1.20, but analysts expect a turnaround to $0.25 by FY 2025.
- Gross Margin: A projected rise from 10 % in 2024 to 12 % in 2025, attributed to economies of scale and cost reductions in battery pack manufacturing.
- Cash Flow: Net cash outflow of $1.2 billion in FY 2024 is expected to shrink to $300 million in FY 2025 after the first plant reaches full capacity.
5. Risks & Headwinds
The article does not shy away from noting several potential pitfalls:
- Supply Chain Volatility – Any hiccups in battery cell supply could delay production and hurt sales.
- Competitive Landscape – Tesla, Ford, and GM are ramping up their EV production; Rivian must differentiate with software and autonomous tech.
- Capital Expenditure Needs – Continued investment in new factories and R&D could strain finances.
- Regulatory Changes – Adjustments to federal or state EV incentives could affect demand.
6. Catalysts That Could Move the Stock
- First Delivery of R1S – A milestone delivery of 10,000 units in Q2 2025 could spark positive sentiment.
- Strategic Partnerships – Announced collaboration with Amazon to deliver its 2026 vehicle fleet.
- Technology Gains – Introduction of Rivian’s “All‑Wheel Drive 12 kWh” battery, boosting range to 400 mi.
7. Analyst Consensus
The article aggregates ratings from several research firms:
- Fidelity – “Buy” with a target of $40.
- Morgan Stanley – “Hold” with a target of $35.
- Jefferies – “Buy” with a target of $42.
The average consensus target of $38.3 aligns with the author’s own forecast.
8. How the Author Reaches the Target
Using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the article discounts future cash flows at a 12.5 % cost of capital and projects a terminal growth rate of 2 %. The net present value of projected cash flows per share equals $39.6. Adjustments for market volatility and a modest “margin of safety” reduce the final recommendation to $38–$42.
9. What the Investor Should Watch
- Quarterly Earnings – Look for improvements in gross margin and a shift to positive EBITDA.
- Production Metrics – Monitor plant capacity utilization and delivery numbers.
- Software Updates – Rivian’s OTA (over‑the‑air) updates are a differentiator; a major software upgrade could increase perceived value.
- Geopolitical Events – US-China trade tensions can impact supply chain costs.
10. Bottom‑Line Takeaway
Rivian is positioned at a pivotal moment: its first plant is approaching full capacity, its product lineup is expanding, and it’s riding the wave of a rapidly growing U.S. EV market. While the path to profitability remains challenging, the article argues that the combination of production scale, strategic partnerships, and supportive policy environments justifies a bullish view. A 2025 price target of $38–$42 reflects expectations of steady growth, but investors are reminded to keep an eye on supply chain stability and competitive pressures.
Sources
- 247WallStreet.com article (Dec 3 2025)
- Rivian Automotive 2024 Annual Report
- MarketWatch “Rivian earnings” coverage
- CNBC “EV market projections” article
- Bloomberg “Battery supply chain” briefing
Disclaimer: This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Read the Full 24/7 Wall St Article at:
[ https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/12/03/rivian-automotive-nasdaq-rivn-stock-price-prediction-for-2025-where-will-it-be-in-1-year/ ]
