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BYD Targets 1.6 Million Global Vehicle Exports by 2026

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  Published in Automotive and Transportation on Friday, December 26th 2025 at 11:58 GMT
      Locale: CHINA

BYD Sets Ambitious 2026 Export Target of 1.6 Million Vehicles, Citi Research Notes

In a recent Citi research note, analysts highlighted China’s battery‑electric‑vehicle (BEV) giant BYD’s bold plans to sell up to 1.6 million vehicles abroad by 2026. The figure represents a dramatic leap from the company’s current export sales, which sit at roughly 140,000 units per year, and underscores the automaker’s determination to become a global force in the electric‑mobility space.

Current Export Landscape

BYD, founded in 1995 as a battery manufacturer, has grown into one of the world’s largest EV makers. In 2023, the company delivered about 1.7 million vehicles worldwide, with domestic sales accounting for 85 % of the total and exports contributing 15 %. Exports have mainly come from Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the Middle East, where BYD’s mid‑priced cars and buses have found receptive markets.

Citi’s analysts point out that BYD’s current export portfolio is relatively thin compared with peers such as Tesla or Volkswagen. Nonetheless, the company has been aggressively pursuing overseas growth, recently launching the BYD Han sedan in select U.S. markets and expanding its presence in Germany with a joint venture that plans to produce BYD‑designed electric vans.

The 1.6 Million‑Unit Projection

The 1.6 million‑unit target is derived from Citi’s “Global EV Outlook” model, which assumes a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35 % in BYD’s export sales from 2024 to 2026. Under this scenario, BYD would be selling roughly 200,000 units per year abroad by 2024, 350,000 units in 2025, and 1.1 million units in 2026. Even at the lower end of the forecast, BYD would become one of the top three global EV exporters, behind only Tesla and Hyundai‑Kia.

The analysts argue that several factors make this projection realistic:

1. Government Support: China’s “Made in China 2025” strategy and export tax incentives have lowered the cost of production and shipping, enabling BYD to compete on price.
2. Battery Technology: BYD’s proprietary LFP (lithium‑iron‑phosphate) batteries, which are cheaper and safer than NCA/NMC chemistries, give the company a competitive edge in price‑sensitive markets.
3. Product Diversification: Beyond sedans and SUVs, BYD is ramping up production of electric buses, trucks, and even hydrogen fuel‑cell modules, providing multiple revenue streams.
4. Global Partnerships: Joint ventures with local automakers in Japan (Nissan), Korea (Hyundai), and Europe (Volkswagen) help BYD sidestep trade barriers and tap into established distribution networks.

Market Targets and Strategic Priorities

North America
The U.S. remains a key focus, with BYD already selling the Han sedan in California, Arizona, and New York. Citi notes that BYD’s price points—$32,000 for the Han SUV, for example—are significantly lower than comparable Tesla models. The company plans to roll out a U.S.‑specific “Pro” variant of its Tang SUV by mid‑2024, targeting the 2025‑2026 sales window.

Europe
In Europe, BYD is targeting Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. The company has signed agreements with German bus operators to supply 10,000 electric buses by 2026, a significant portion of its projected export volume. The European Union’s stringent emissions regulations are accelerating the demand for low‑carbon fleets, which benefits BYD’s electric bus division.

Asia‑Pacific
Beyond its domestic base, BYD is strengthening its foothold in Japan, South Korea, and India. In Japan, a new joint venture will build BYD‑branded vehicles in the Nagoya region. In India, BYD is negotiating a partnership with Tata Motors to produce a mid‑priced SUV for the country’s growing middle class.

Middle East and Africa
Citi’s analysts also highlight BYD’s strategic push into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, where the company is building a dedicated plant in Saudi Arabia to serve the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The plant will also supply the African market, where rising oil prices and a growing preference for electric public transport are creating a large market for BYD’s buses.

Competitive Landscape

BYD’s primary competition comes from other Chinese EV giants such as NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto, as well as international players like Tesla, Volkswagen, and GM. While Tesla’s U.S. sales remain dominant, BYD’s lower cost structure and broader product mix give it a potential advantage in price‑sensitive segments. Citi notes that BYD’s “DM” plug‑in hybrid platform also offers a bridge technology that can appeal to customers who are not yet ready to commit to full electric vehicles.

Risks and Caveats

Despite the optimistic forecast, Citi underscores several risks:

• Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Global shortages of semiconductors and battery raw materials could constrain BYD’s production capacity.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Tariffs and trade tensions between China and other major economies could increase costs and delay market entry.
• Competition Intensifies: Tesla’s aggressive pricing and expanding global assembly operations could erode BYD’s market share in key regions.
• Consumer Adoption: In the U.S. and Europe, consumer loyalty to established brands may slow the uptake of BYD’s vehicles.

Bottom Line

BYD’s aspiration to sell 1.6 million vehicles abroad by 2026 is an audacious benchmark that reflects the automaker’s aggressive expansion strategy, strong domestic foundation, and significant policy support. Citi’s research suggests that, while the target is achievable under optimal conditions, BYD will need to navigate a rapidly changing competitive environment, maintain production flexibility, and continue to innovate in battery and power‑train technologies.

If BYD can realize this vision, it will not only solidify its status as the world’s largest EV exporter but also reshape the global automotive landscape by offering high‑quality, affordable electric vehicles across continents.