Nearly Half of China's First-Time Car Buyers Are Eyeing Electric Vehicles

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  Automotive and Transportation on Mon, Dec 08th, 2025 by Bloomberg L.P.
      Locale: CHINA

Nearly Half of China’s First‑Time Car Buyers Are Eyeing Electric Vehicles, Bloomberg Intelligence Reports

Bloomberg Intelligence released a detailed analysis of the Chinese automotive market on December 8, 2025, uncovering a striking shift in the preferences of first‑time car buyers. According to the report, almost 50 % of new car purchasers in China are now explicitly seeking an electric vehicle (EV)—a number that signals the rapid erosion of the internal‑combustion‑engine (ICE) segment and the growing mainstream acceptance of battery‑powered cars.

1. The Numbers Behind the Trend

• Data Source: The intelligence team drew on figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), supplemented by a proprietary survey of 15,000 respondents across 30 provinces.
• EV Share Among New Buyers: 48 % of first‑time buyers indicated a preference for an EV, up from 37 % in late 2024 and a historic high compared with 12 % in 2020.
• Segment Breakdown:
  • Battery‑Electric Vehicles (BEVs) – 34 %
  • Plug‑in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) – 14 %
  • Conventional ICE vehicles – 18 % (down from 36 % two years earlier)

The report highlights that the surge is particularly pronounced in tier‑1 and tier‑2 cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, where charging infrastructure and digital connectivity are more mature.

2. Drivers Behind the Shift

Bloomberg Intelligence identified four primary factors that are nudging new buyers toward EVs:

The article quotes Dr. Li Wei, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, noting, “The willingness of first‑time buyers to prioritize an EV over a traditional car reflects a fundamental change in risk perception.”

3. The Market Landscape: Domestic Giants vs. Global Players

Domestic brands continue to dominate the EV segment. The top three models—BYD’s Han EV, Xpeng’s P5, and NIO’s ES8—account for 57 % of EV sales among new buyers. Their advantages include:

• Localized Supply Chains: Domestic battery suppliers have secured long‑term contracts with major Chinese battery manufacturers, keeping production costs low.
• Smart‑car Integration: Advanced driver‑assist systems and 5G connectivity are standard, appealing to tech‑savvy consumers.

Foreign automakers are also making inroads:

• Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y have captured 9 % of the EV segment, buoyed by brand prestige and access to Supercharger networks.
• Volkswagen introduced its ID.4 and ID.5, targeting the premium sub‑segment, with a combined 5 % share.

The article includes a table comparing key metrics—price, range, charging time—between domestic and foreign models, underscoring that domestic EVs are typically cheaper and better adapted to local infrastructure constraints.

4. Impact on ICE Vehicle Sales

The ICE segment is shrinking rapidly. CAAM reported a 12 % year‑on‑year decline in ICE sales for the first half of 2025. Bloomberg Intelligence’s forecast models predict a continuous decline of 8–10 % annually over the next three years unless domestic ICE manufacturers pivot to hybrid or electric platforms.

The report points out that this decline could have broader economic implications:

• Supply Chain Disruption: A large number of workers in traditional engine manufacturing and parts supply chains could face layoffs unless retraining programs are introduced.
• Urban Planning: Reduced ICE vehicle numbers may accelerate city policies to limit combustion‑engine traffic, such as the “Low‑Emission Zones” being rolled out in Shanghai.

5. Charging Infrastructure: A Key Enabler

The Bloomberg Intelligence team underscores that charging infrastructure has grown to 650,000 public stations nationwide as of October 2025, a 35 % increase over the previous year. However, they warn that regional disparities remain:

• Tier‑1 cities boast an average of 8 stations per 1,000 vehicles.
• Tier‑3 and rural areas have less than 1 station per 1,000 vehicles, limiting EV adoption outside urban cores.

Government plans to double the number of fast‑charging stations in the next two years, targeting a 1:500 station‑to‑vehicle ratio by 2027, will be crucial for sustaining growth.

6. The Future Outlook

Bloomberg Intelligence projects that EVs will account for 55–60 % of all new car sales in China by 2027. The report identifies several scenarios:

1. Continued Subsidy Reduction: If subsidies are phased out entirely by 2027, EVs may still hold a majority share, but growth rates could moderate.
2. Technological Breakthroughs: Advances in solid‑state battery technology could reduce costs further and increase range, giving domestic brands a decisive edge.
3. Policy Tightening: Expanded low‑emission mandates could accelerate ICE decline beyond the forecasted 8–10 % annual drop.

7. Key Takeaways

• Almost half of first‑time car buyers in China now prefer EVs, reflecting a maturation of the domestic EV market and a shift in consumer priorities.
• Domestic brands dominate the EV segment, while foreign automakers maintain a growing but smaller presence.
• Government incentives and infrastructure growth are critical enablers, but the long‑term trajectory will depend on policy continuity and technological innovation.
• ICE vehicle sales are in decline, with significant economic and environmental implications for the next decade.

The Bloomberg Intelligence report concludes, “The data is unequivocal: the Chinese automotive market is no longer a niche for EVs—it’s the mainstream. The next step will be how quickly the industry can respond to keep the momentum.”