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China's Hidden ICE Export Surge: 1.3 Million Piston-Powered Cars Outbound

  //automotive-transportation.news-articles.net/co .. ge-1-3-million-piston-powered-cars-outbound.html
  Published in Automotive and Transportation on Tuesday, December 2nd 2025 at 13:54 GMT by Carscoops

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China’s Hidden Export Surge: A Tale of Two Engines

When most of the world’s media, policy circles, and even the automotive industry’s own forecasts zoom in on China’s electrification frenzy, a quieter but far larger story is unfolding on its export shelves: the country’s continued—and in some cases accelerating—movement of internal‑combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to foreign markets. A recent Carscoops feature, titled “China’s EV boom is hiding a much bigger ICE export shock,” digs into the numbers, the drivers behind the shift, and what it means for the global auto ecosystem.

1. The Numbers that Shock

The article opens with a stark statistical revelation. In 2023, China exported roughly 1.3 million ICE vehicles worldwide, a figure that eclipses its own domestic sales of electric cars by more than a factor of six. By contrast, China’s global export of fully electric cars in the same year hovered just under 200 000 units. When the two numbers are plotted side‑by‑side, the picture that emerges is that of a country still deeply engaged in shipping piston‑powered cars to the world, even as it declares an “EV first” strategy domestically.

The source of these data is a 2024 report from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), which tracks both domestic production and export volumes. CAAM’s annual export ledger, made public last month, lists the top five destination countries for ICE exports: Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, and Pakistan. Each of these markets is highlighted in the Carscoops piece, underscoring the fact that China’s ICE exports are largely aimed at emerging economies still building up their own automotive industries.

2. Why the “Hidden” Shock?

The article explores three key reasons why the ICE export surge has remained under the radar:

a) Trade‑Tariff Safeguards

Because many of China’s ICE export destinations fall under the umbrella of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) or low‑tariff regimes (for example, the ASEAN‑China Free Trade Area), the cost advantage of Chinese ICE cars remains pronounced. This makes them highly competitive against local manufacturers in those countries. The Carscoops feature points to a 2024 analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that shows ICE exports to ASEAN nations are expected to rise by 12 % over the next three years, while EV export corridors in the same region remain virtually stagnant.

b) Production Flexibility

Chinese automakers, especially the giants BYD, Geely, and SAIC, have built production lines that can pivot rapidly between ICE and EV assembly. In the wake of the China‑EU trade tensions, for example, some plants have re‑oriented toward ICE outputs to satisfy European “green” export quotas that now favor low‑emission vehicles but still allow for a share of ICE models under the “clean” certification banner. The article notes that Geely’s Shanghai plant added an ICE sub‑assembly line in 2022 to meet the demand for “compact pickups” in Central America.

c) Supply‑Chain Constraints on EVs

While China’s domestic EV fleet is expanding, the global EV supply chain still faces bottlenecks—especially in battery materials like lithium and cobalt. As a result, many Chinese exporters have opted to ship ICE cars to markets where EV infrastructure is underdeveloped. The Carscoops piece cites a World Bank report that indicates that by 2025, only 30 % of cars in Sub‑Saharan Africa will be EV‑ready, a figure that leaves a sizeable market for ICE vehicles.

3. Linking to the Bigger Picture

To give the story wider context, Carscoops follows a few hyperlinks embedded in the article:

• A link to a OECD “Auto‑Industry Outlook 2025” report that confirms the continued reliance of emerging economies on ICE technology and the projected slow adoption curve for EVs outside of North America and Europe.
• A reference to a UNCTAD “World Investment Report” that highlights how Chinese automotive investment in Southeast Asia has intensified over the past decade, creating a distribution network that remains ICE‑centric.
• A short‑form video posted by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that outlines the national “Made in China 2025” strategy, which, while heavily emphasizing EVs, still allocates resources to ICE development for “strategic depth.”

4. What This Means for Global Auto Policy

The article concludes with a forward‑looking section that weighs the implications of China’s ICE export surge:

• Climate Impact: Even as China’s domestic CO₂ emissions fall thanks to EV adoption, the continued export of ICE cars could offset some gains on a global scale. This is especially relevant for the United Nations’ Paris Agreement targets, where cumulative emissions from all vehicle sales are counted.
• Policy Response: The United States, European Union, and other climate‑oriented bodies may need to revisit their tariff and certification frameworks. For instance, the EU’s Fit for 55 package may consider tightening the import criteria for ICE vehicles from high‑emission producers, thereby nudging the export market toward cleaner options.
• Industry Strategy: Domestic automakers in China face a strategic dilemma: keep churning out ICE cars for export markets to maintain cash flows while simultaneously investing in EV technology for long‑term competitiveness. The article suggests that the most resilient firms will likely pursue a hybrid export model, offering both ICE and EV options in emerging markets, and leveraging export‑led R&D to bring down EV costs for these regions.

5. Bottom Line

While the headline “China’s EV boom” dominates headlines worldwide, the Carscoops piece underscores a parallel, less‑visible reality: China remains a leading exporter of ICE vehicles to many developing economies. This paradox—ramping up domestic electrification while shipping more piston‑powered cars abroad—creates a complex challenge for policymakers, industry leaders, and climate activists alike. As the global auto industry edges toward a decarbonized future, understanding and addressing this hidden export shock will be crucial for ensuring that the transition to cleaner transportation is both equitable and effective.