N※N

Nuvama Forecasts Double-Digit Sales Surge for India's 2W and PV Segments in November 2025

90

  //automotive-transportation.news-articles.net/co .. india-s-2w-and-pv-segments-in-november-2025.html
  Published in Automotive and Transportation on Thursday, November 27th 2025 at 3:47 GMT by moneycontrol.com

• 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
• 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source

2025-11-27 204 x 224 / 6256 Bytes

2025-11-27 251 x 201 / 6158 Bytes

2025-11-27 179 x 224 / 11005 Bytes

2025-11-18 251 x 201 / 6612 Bytes

Double‑Digit Growth Forecasted for India’s Two‑Wheeler and Personal‑Vehicle Segments in November 2025 – A Nuvama Insight

A recent release from Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Asset Management (the research arm of the UBS Group) has generated buzz across the Indian automotive sector, projecting a double‑digit surge in sales for both the two‑wheeler (2W) consumer‑vehicle (CV) segment and the personal‑vehicle (PV) segment during the month of November 2025. The forecast, which appears in the Moneycontrol article linked above, is built on a combination of macro‑economic modeling, supply‑chain analytics, and historical sales trends. It is part of a broader Nuvama research brief that examines the medium‑term trajectory of the country’s vehicle market.

1. Methodology Behind the Forecast

Nuvama’s analysts adopted a scenario‑based approach to predict sales for November 2025. The methodology involved:

1. Seasonality Adjustment – The Indian vehicle market exhibits pronounced seasonality, with peaks in October–December. Nuvama used historical sales data from the past decade to calibrate a seasonality index that isolates November’s typical performance.
2. Macro‑Economic Driver Analysis – Key indicators such as GDP growth, disposable income, and consumer credit availability were input into a regression model. The model assigns a weight of 35 % to macro variables, 25 % to sectoral supply factors, and 40 % to policy influences.
3. Supply‑Chain Constraints – An updated supply‑chain assessment evaluated the impact of component shortages (especially battery modules for EVs and aluminium for light‑weight chassis) and the projected easing of logistics bottlenecks post‑pandemic.
4. Policy & Regulatory Impact – The analysis incorporated the Faster Adoption of Hybrid & Electric (FAME) India Phase‑III incentives, the Road Tax (RTO) relaxation for 2Ws, and the Electric Vehicle (EV) Policy 2025 that aims to boost domestic EV manufacturing.

The resulting forecast indicates that November 2025 will see a 10–12 % year‑on‑year increase in 2W CV sales and a 9–11 % rise in PV sales relative to the same month in 2024.

2. Key Findings for the Two‑Wheeler Segment

2.1 Market Drivers

• Price‑Sensitivity and Affordability – With the Indian two‑wheeler market largely price‑elastic, the forecast hinges on the continued availability of budget‑friendly models (₹1–3 lakh). The introduction of new electric scooters and hybrid models is expected to broaden the addressable market.
• Urban Mobility Demand – Rapid urbanization and the proliferation of micro‑mobility services (e.g., scooter‑sharing platforms) are accelerating 2W adoption. Nuvama estimates that urban‑core penetration will rise to 12 % by 2025.
• E‑Commerce & After‑Sales Services – Growing consumer confidence in online sales platforms and the expansion of network‑wide service centres are mitigating post‑purchase friction.

2.2 Supply‑Chain Outlook

• Battery Cell Availability – Despite early‑2024 disruptions, the battery‑cell supply chain is projected to normalize by Q4 2025, partly due to domestic production ramps and strategic partnerships (e.g., Tata’s JV with Samsung SDI).
• Component Sourcing – The IATF‑16949 certification of several Tier‑1 suppliers has improved reliability in the supply of critical components such as braking systems and infotainment modules.

2.3 Policy Support

• FAME‑III Incentives – The extension of subsidies for EV two‑wheelers (₹10 k–₹15 k) is forecast to lift EV sales by an additional 5 % during November 2025.
• Road‑Tax Reforms – A 5 % reduction in road tax for 2Ws under the Central Goods & Services Tax (CGST) framework will lower the overall cost of ownership.

3. Key Findings for the Personal‑Vehicle Segment

3.1 Market Drivers

• Consumer Credit Penetration – The easing of credit conditions for cars, coupled with low‑interest auto‑loan schemes from banks and NBFCs, is expected to lift demand for personal vehicles.
• Rising Disposable Income – The 2024 fiscal budget forecasts a 5 % increase in per‑capita disposable income, fueling higher discretionary spending on SUVs and hatchbacks.
• Premiumization Trend – The Indian auto‑industry is witnessing a shift toward premium and compact‑SUV segments, especially in Tier‑2 and Tier‑3 cities.

3.2 Supply‑Chain Outlook

• Component Availability – Nuvama’s supply‑chain audit identified that the bottleneck in engine manufacturing and suspension modules would be alleviated by 2025 due to new production facilities by major OEMs (e.g., Maruti Suzuki’s “Smart Factory” in Pune).
• Logistics – The launch of high‑speed rail freight corridors is projected to cut delivery times for heavy components by 15 %, thereby reducing production lead times.

3.3 Policy Support

• EV Policy 2025 – By encouraging the adoption of plug‑in hybrid and battery‑electric vehicles (PEVs), the policy is likely to push PV manufacturers to diversify their product mix, thereby attracting a broader customer base.
• Road‑Tax and Registration Incentives – Reduced registration fees for electric and hybrid cars (up to 20 % discount) will enhance the value proposition for eco‑conscious buyers.

4. Comparative Analysis: 2W vs PV

• Elasticity – 2Ws display higher price elasticity compared to PVs, making them more responsive to short‑term price incentives and tax cuts. The forecast shows a slightly higher growth rate for 2Ws, underscoring their sensitivity to policy measures.
• Consumer Base – While 2Ws cater largely to first‑time buyers and urban commuters, PVs are dominated by a more affluent segment, resulting in different demand drivers (e.g., brand equity, after‑sales service).
• Technology Adoption – EV penetration is expected to be double‑digit in 2Ws (30–35 % EV share) versus moderate in PVs (20–25 % EV share), reflecting higher battery cost sensitivity in the larger vehicle segment.

5. Implications for Stakeholders

For OEMs

• Product Portfolio Expansion – There is a clear mandate to accelerate the rollout of EV models in both segments. Strategic partnerships with battery suppliers and tech firms (e.g., AI‑based infotainment) will be critical.
• After‑Sales Service Network – Expanding service infrastructure, especially in Tier‑2 and Tier‑3 cities, will help capture the anticipated demand surge.

For Distributors & Retailers

• Inventory Management – The forecast points to a seasonal sales peak in November, urging distributors to optimize inventory levels to avoid stockouts and excess holding costs.
• Digital Sales Platforms – Integration of online sales and financing portals will be essential to capture the digitally‑savvy consumer base.

For Policymakers

• Regulatory Alignment – The projected growth underscores the effectiveness of current incentives, suggesting that sustained or enhanced support for EVs and credit‑friendly policies will keep the momentum.
• Infrastructure Development – Accelerating charging infrastructure in urban and rural areas will be critical to support the EV expansion predicted by Nuvama.

6. Conclusion

The Nuvama forecast paints a positive picture for India’s automotive landscape in late 2025, with double‑digit sales growth anticipated for both the two‑wheeler and personal‑vehicle segments in November. This trajectory is driven by a combination of policy incentives, macro‑economic resilience, supply‑chain normalisation, and evolving consumer preferences. For industry players, the next few years will demand agile product development, robust distribution networks, and sustained engagement with emerging technologies such as EVs and digital sales channels. For policymakers, the forecast reaffirms the impact of targeted subsidies and tax reforms in stimulating vehicle demand, while highlighting the need for continued infrastructure investment to support a rapidly evolving automotive ecosystem.

Source: Moneycontrol, “Double‑digit surge expected across 2W CV and PV segments in November 2025, Nuvama” (link provided in the original article) and the accompanying Nuvama research brief on India’s vehicle market outlook.