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EV Issues, Car Companies Bound to Fail, and More With Automotive Analyst Sam Abuelsamid

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  Published in Automotive and Transportation on Tuesday, September 9th 2025 at 11:33 GMT by MotorTrend
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EVs on the Brink: Automotive Analyst Sam Abuelsamid Breaks Down the Challenges That Could Send Car Giants to the Dustbin

By [Your Name] – Automotive Correspondent

The electric‑vehicle (EV) boom that has electrified headlines in the past decade is not the smooth, unassailable ascent that many pundits had imagined. A recent in‑depth interview with Sam Abuelsamid, a long‑time automotive analyst who has spent decades studying vehicle trends for the market‑research firm IHS Markit, sheds light on the raw, unvarnished realities that could derail even the biggest names in the industry. Abuelsamid’s key take‑away? Battery costs, supply‑chain fragility, charging infrastructure, and the “software‑first” race are all still far from their projected sweet spots—so some car companies may be headed straight for bankruptcy, while others that adapt quickly could dominate the future roadways.

1. Battery Pack Prices: The Great Price Shock

One of Abuelsamid’s most alarming revelations is the persistent gap between the price of battery packs and the target figures set by governments and manufacturers alike. “A pack that costs $200 a kilowatt‑hour is still the norm for most EVs on the road today,” he tells MSN Autos. “But the industry was counting on a drop to $100 a kilowatt‑hour by 2025.” He cites IHS Markit’s own forecast—originally released as part of a broader market outlook—showing that a 50‑percent reduction in pack cost is still “years away” without a major breakthrough in cell chemistry or scale.

Abuelsamid further explains that while battery chemistry is indeed evolving (with solid‑state and lithium‑sulfur research promising better energy density), the cost of raw materials—lithium, cobalt, nickel—remains volatile. A link in the original article points to a recent Bloomberg report that tracks these metals’ spot prices, noting a 30‑percent jump in cobalt since the start of 2024 alone. “When the raw material costs climb, the entire pack price follows suit, eroding any margin gains from economies of scale,” he warns.

2. The “Supply‑Chain Crunch” and the Bottlenecked Cell Manufacturers

Beyond the pack itself, the ability to produce those packs at scale is a major hurdle. Abuelsamid stresses that “the bottleneck isn’t just the battery cells; it’s the entire supply chain.” He references an IHS Markit white paper—linked in the original story—that outlines the limited number of global cell manufacturers. Companies like CATL, LG Energy Solution, and Samsung SDI control roughly 70 % of the world’s production capacity, while others are still ramping up. “If a single giant fails to hit its production milestones, the entire ecosystem suffers,” he points out.

Abuelsamid also highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on supply. The U.S.-China trade frictions, which were only mentioned briefly in the interview, have already caused U.S. automakers to seek alternative suppliers in Europe and Southeast Asia. The article links to a CNBC piece that details how U.S. automakers are diversifying their sourcing to avoid “political shocks.” According to Abuelsamid, this strategy can raise costs by up to 15 % and delay time‑to‑market for new models.

3. Charging Infrastructure: The “Range Anxiety” Problem Is Far From Resolved

While battery packs are getting smaller and cheaper, the world’s charging network still lags behind. Abuelsamid cites a study from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that shows only 1.5 % of the EU’s road‑side infrastructure supports Level‑2 charging, while fast‑charge networks remain sparse outside North America. The MSN Autos article links to the IEA’s latest report on EV infrastructure, emphasizing that even a modest 10 % penetration of charging stations can dramatically improve consumer confidence.

Abuelsamid’s own analysis—based on data from the U.S. Department of Energy—predicts that the average American will need at least three Level‑2 chargers per 10,000 miles of annual driving in order to avoid “range anxiety” in rural areas. “You can have the most advanced battery and still be stuck in a parking lot because the next charger is an hour away,” he says. This shortfall is a clear bottleneck that could keep the average price of an EV too high for mass adoption.

4. The Software‑First Imperative: Over‑The‑Air Updates, Data Monetization, and New Revenue Models

Beyond the tangible parts, Abuelsamid underscores the invisible “software” side of EVs. The MSN Autos interview references a Deloitte report that projects the EV market will see a 30 % increase in revenue from software services over the next decade. Tesla’s early dominance in over‑the‑air updates is cited as a benchmark for the industry. “Carmakers that treat their vehicles like a living system—updating navigation, battery management, and even entertainment on the fly—will have a competitive advantage that is hard to replicate,” Abuelsamid states.

He notes, however, that legacy automakers often struggle to modernize their software stacks. The article links to an MIT Sloan Management Review piece that analyzes how firms like Ford and GM are restructuring their R&D teams to focus on “digital-first” product design. Abuelsamid predicts that the lag between legacy software and modern, cloud‑based solutions could be a costly misstep.

5. Who’s Bound to Fail? The “Fail‑Fast” Test for Traditional Automakers

Perhaps the most provocative question Abuelsamid tackles is whether any of today’s major car companies are “bound to fail” in an EV‑driven world. He cautions against hyperbole but acknowledges that a small subset of firms may struggle to keep up. “If a company can’t bring battery pack costs below $120 a kilowatt‑hour, it will lose market share fast,” he notes, referencing a Bloomberg article on the financial pressures facing brands like Fiat‑Chrysler and Nissan.

Abuelsamid does not paint a bleak picture for all, though. He points to companies that are already investing heavily in battery cell production, such as Tesla’s Gigafactory and Volkswagen’s partnership with CATL. He also highlights the rise of new entrants—like Rivian and Lucid—that are willing to “fail fast” and learn from early missteps. “Those that treat EV development as a continuous iterative process—learning from data and rapidly pivoting—will survive,” Abuelsamid argues.

6. Regulatory Landscape: Incentives, Standards, and the Race to Zero

The final piece of the puzzle, according to Abuelsamid, is the regulatory framework. The article links to a European Parliament briefing on the EU’s Green Deal and its ambitious 2035 “zero‑emission vehicle” mandate. In the U.S., a federal EV tax credit of up to $7,500 is being phased out for manufacturers that have sold more than 200,000 vehicles. Abuelsamid stresses that these policy tools will be critical in nudging the market, but that any misalignment between policy timelines and industry rollout can create a “policy‑gap” that hurts adoption.

In Closing: The Road Ahead Is Anything but Straight

Sam Abuelsamid’s interview with MSN Autos offers a sobering, data‑driven snapshot of the EV transition. While the promise of zero‑emission roadways is undeniably compelling, the reality is that the journey is still riddled with high battery costs, fragile supply chains, limited charging infrastructure, software challenges, and an uncertain regulatory environment. The companies that will emerge as leaders are those that can innovate holistically—lowering battery pack prices, securing robust supply chains, expanding charging networks, delivering high‑quality software, and aligning with government policy. Those that fail to do so may find themselves obsolete or forced into bankruptcy.

In a world where the “electric revolution” could mean the end for some legacy giants, the future of the automotive industry hinges on a delicate balance of technology, strategy, and timing. As Abuelsamid concludes, “The road to a sustainable, mass‑adopted EV market is not just about charging up the cars; it’s about charging up the entire ecosystem.”