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NTSB to Announce Probable Cause of Montana Midair Collision

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  Published in Automotive and Transportation on Tuesday, January 27th 2026 at 5:42 GMT by The New York Times
      Locales: Colorado, Nebraska, UNITED STATES

Helena, Montana - January 27th, 2026 - The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is scheduled to formally announce the probable cause of the devastating midair collision that occurred on November 12th, 2025, over rural Montana. The event, involving a Delta Airlines flight from Denver to Seattle and a United Airlines flight from Chicago to Los Angeles, has triggered intense public scrutiny and a renewed national conversation about the safety and modernization of the U.S. air traffic control system.

The collision, which resulted in over 200 fatalities, represents the first incident of its kind involving passenger planes in the United States in over two decades. The sheer scale of the tragedy has amplified calls for immediate action to prevent similar occurrences. The NTSB's investigation, now nearly complete after three months of rigorous analysis, has involved a meticulous examination of radar data, flight recorder information ("black boxes"), and the scattered wreckage recovered from the impact site.

Communication Breakdown and Automation Concerns

Initial assessments pointed towards a potential breakdown in communication, both between the two aircraft and between the planes and the Billings air traffic control center. These early indications fueled speculation regarding the role of human error, a perennial concern within aviation safety. However, the possibility of automation system failures has also emerged as a significant area of inquiry. As aircraft increasingly rely on automated systems for navigation and collision avoidance, experts are examining whether malfunctions or misinterpretations of automated guidance could have contributed to the disaster.

"The complexity of modern aircraft systems means that understanding the interplay between automated processes and human decision-making is critical," explains Dr. Eleanor Vance, an aviation safety consultant and former FAA engineer. "While automation is designed to enhance safety, it can also create new vulnerabilities if not properly managed and monitored. It's crucial to determine if any automated systems contributed to the sequence of events that led to this collision."

A System Ripe for Modernization

The tragedy has amplified long-standing criticisms of the U.S. air traffic control system. Unlike many other developed nations, the U.S. still operates a system largely based on technology dating back to the 1970s. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been working towards NextGen, a modernization initiative, for decades, but progress has been slow and fraught with challenges, including funding constraints and technological hurdles. The slow pace has left the system vulnerable to issues arising from increased air traffic density and more complex aircraft operations.

The upcoming NTSB report is expected to address not only the immediate cause of the collision but also to offer recommendations for systemic improvements. These recommendations are likely to include accelerating the implementation of NextGen, enhancing air traffic controller training and workload management, and strengthening oversight of aircraft automation systems. Furthermore, the report may recommend a review of communication protocols between airlines and air traffic control.

Public and Political Pressure

The loss of life and the emotional impact of the collision have created substantial public and political pressure for swift and decisive action. Congressional committees have already announced hearings to examine the incident and assess the FAA's modernization efforts. Several lawmakers are advocating for increased funding and stricter deadlines for NextGen implementation.

NTSB Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy underscored the importance of transparency and accountability in a statement released Monday, emphasizing the agency's commitment to providing a comprehensive and actionable report. "We are dedicated to learning from this tragedy and ensuring that the skies remain as safe as possible for all travelers," she stated.

The announcement, scheduled for later today, is anticipated to provide a clearer picture of what led to this catastrophic event and to shape the future of air traffic safety in the United States.