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Lease Expiration Surge to Reshape Auto Wholesale Market

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  Published in Automotive and Transportation on Wednesday, January 14th 2026 at 12:05 GMT by Auto Remarketing

IRVINE, Calif. - The automotive industry is bracing for a significant shift in the wholesale vehicle market driven by a looming surge of lease expirations and the rapidly increasing prevalence of electric vehicles (EVs). A wave of vehicles leased in 2021 and 2022 is now returning to the market, creating what industry analysts are calling a critical inflection point, and initial data suggests a dramatically different composition than previous off-lease cycles.

The situation, as described by Eric Elkins, owner and CEO of AutoRemarketing, is a "perfect storm" - a confluence of record lease expirations, escalating EV adoption, and inherent inventory volatility all colliding at once. This isn't just about a larger number of vehicles hitting the wholesale market; it's about what kind of vehicles those are.

The Lease Expiration Avalanche:

The years 2021 and 2022 saw unprecedented levels of vehicle leasing, fueled by attractive financing options and pent-up demand following pandemic-related disruptions. Now, those leases are coming due. This influx of off-lease vehicles will significantly increase the supply available to wholesale markets, potentially impacting pricing and inventory strategies across the board.

The EV Transformation:

What truly distinguishes this upcoming wave of lease returns is the growing proportion of electric vehicles. As consumer adoption of EVs has accelerated in recent years - spurred by government incentives, improved technology, and expanding charging infrastructure - a corresponding increase in EV lease expirations is inevitable. This represents a fundamental change in the makeup of the wholesale inventory.

"We're anticipating a substantial increase in EV lease expirations over the next few years," Elkins stated. The implications are significant. EVs, often retaining higher values due to their evolving technology and demand, could command premium prices in the wholesale market. Conversely, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles may experience downward pressure on their values as the overall market adjusts to the increased supply of EVs.

Regional Disparities and Market Volatility:

The impact won't be uniform across the nation. AutoRemarketing's analysis highlights the likelihood of regional variations. Areas with higher EV adoption rates - typically urban centers and states with robust EV incentive programs - will likely see a more pronounced shift towards EVs in the off-lease channel. Regions with lower EV penetration might experience a more gradual transition. This geographical difference demands localized strategies for both dealers and wholesalers.

Potential Implications for Dealers and Wholesalers:

The looming shift presents both challenges and opportunities. Dealers need to prepare for a potential shift in consumer demand and adjust their inventory mix accordingly. Wholesalers must adapt their pricing and bidding strategies to account for the fluctuating values of EVs and ICE vehicles. The volatility in the market is likely to increase, requiring greater agility and data-driven decision-making.

Looking Ahead:

The automotive industry is entering a period of significant transition. AutoRemarketing's team will continue to monitor the off-lease market closely, providing updates and insights to navigate this evolving landscape. The next few months will be critical as the industry grapples with the implications of this inflection point and adapts to the new reality of a wholesale market increasingly shaped by electric vehicles. Successfully navigating this period will require proactive planning, a keen understanding of regional trends, and a willingness to embrace the electric future.

Key Considerations:

• Inventory Management: Dealers and wholesalers must carefully manage inventory to align with shifting consumer preferences and EV lease return volumes.
• Pricing Strategies: Dynamic pricing models will be essential to accurately reflect the changing values of EVs and ICE vehicles.
• Regional Analysis: Understanding regional EV adoption rates is crucial for tailoring inventory and pricing strategies.
• Data-Driven Decisions: Real-time data and market insights will be essential for making informed decisions in a volatile market.