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Box Office Grosses Won't Return to Pre-COVID Levels Even by 2029, New Report Forecasts

Box Office Blues: PwC Report Forecasts Prolonged Recovery for Global Cinema Revenues Until 2029

In a sobering assessment of the film industry's post-pandemic landscape, a new report from PwC paints a picture of a sluggish recovery for global box office revenues, suggesting that the theatrical market may not fully rebound to its pre-COVID highs until at least 2029. The findings, detailed in PwC's Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2024-2028, highlight the lingering impacts of the coronavirus shutdowns, shifting consumer habits, and economic headwinds that continue to reshape how audiences engage with movies. This extensive analysis underscores a broader transformation in the entertainment sector, where traditional cinema is grappling with competition from streaming giants, reduced theatrical output, and evolving viewer preferences.

The report's core revelation is stark: worldwide box office earnings, which peaked at $42.3 billion in 2019 before the pandemic disrupted the industry, dipped to $33.9 billion in 2023. While there are signs of growth on the horizon, PwC projects that revenues will climb to approximately $44.5 billion by 2028. However, this figure still falls short of the inflation-adjusted pre-COVID benchmark, meaning a true return to 2019 levels—accounting for rising costs and economic changes—won't occur until the following year, 2029. This delayed timeline reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 5.6% from 2023 to 2028, a respectable but not explosive pace that signals caution for studios, exhibitors, and investors alike.

Delving deeper into the regional dynamics, the United States and Canada remain the largest theatrical market, contributing significantly to global totals. In 2023, North American box office hauled in $8.9 billion, a rebound from the pandemic lows but still well below the $11.4 billion recorded in 2019. PwC anticipates this market will expand to $11.2 billion by 2028, driven by blockbuster releases and premium formats like IMAX and 3D screenings. Yet, even here, the recovery is tempered by fewer wide-release films hitting theaters. The report notes a decline in the number of movies receiving broad distribution, from around 900 in 2019 to roughly 700 in 2023, as studios pivot toward high-profile tentpoles and direct-to-streaming content to mitigate risks.

Internationally, the outlook varies by region. China, once a powerhouse for Hollywood exports, has seen its box office stabilize but not surge. Revenues there reached $7.5 billion in 2023, up from pandemic disruptions but hampered by regulatory scrutiny on foreign films and a resurgence in local productions. PwC forecasts growth to $9.8 billion by 2028, fueled by an expanding middle class and more cinema screens. Europe, meanwhile, faces its own challenges, with markets like the UK and Germany projecting modest gains amid economic uncertainty and competition from home entertainment options. Emerging markets in Latin America and the Middle East show promise, with expected CAGRs exceeding 7%, thanks to infrastructure investments and rising disposable incomes.

Several key factors are cited in the report as contributors to this protracted recovery. Foremost is the seismic shift toward streaming services, which accelerated during lockdowns and have retained a firm grip on consumer attention. Platforms like Netflix, Disney+, and Amazon Prime Video have not only siphoned viewership but also influenced content strategies, with many films opting for hybrid or exclusive streaming releases to capture global audiences quickly. This has led to a "windowing" debate, where the traditional 45-90 day exclusive theatrical window is increasingly compressed, potentially eroding the perceived value of cinema outings.

Economic pressures also play a pivotal role. Inflation, rising ticket prices, and cost-of-living crises in many countries have made moviegoing a luxury rather than a staple. The average ticket price globally has increased, but attendance hasn't kept pace, resulting in flat or declining per-capita spending in some areas. Additionally, the 2023 Hollywood strikes by writers and actors disrupted production pipelines, leading to a thinner slate of releases in 2024 and beyond. PwC analysts point out that while hits like "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" (the so-called "Barbenheimer" phenomenon) provided a much-needed boost in 2023, such cultural moments are unpredictable and can't be relied upon to sustain the industry.

On a brighter note, the report identifies opportunities for growth through innovation and diversification. Premium large-format screenings, such as IMAX and Dolby Cinema, are expected to drive higher revenues per ticket, with projections showing these formats accounting for a larger share of box office by 2028. Event cinema—live broadcasts of concerts, sports, and operas— is also gaining traction as a way to fill seats during off-peak times. Moreover, the integration of technology, including AI-driven marketing and personalized recommendations, could help theaters attract younger demographics who have grown accustomed to on-demand viewing.

Beyond the box office, PwC's outlook extends to the broader entertainment and media ecosystem, revealing interconnected trends. Total global entertainment and media revenues are forecasted to reach $2.8 trillion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 3.9%. Advertising remains a dominant force, expected to hit $1 trillion annually by 2026, with digital platforms leading the charge. Streaming video revenues are projected to surge to $94 billion by 2028, underscoring the competitive pressure on traditional media. In contrast, sectors like music and publishing show resilience, with live events and digital subscriptions providing steady income streams.

For the film industry specifically, the report emphasizes the need for adaptation. Studios are encouraged to balance theatrical releases with multi-platform strategies, leveraging data analytics to optimize release windows and marketing. Exhibitors, facing declining foot traffic, might invest in experiential enhancements, such as themed concessions or immersive environments, to differentiate from home viewing. The rise of international co-productions and localized content could also help mitigate risks in volatile markets.

Industry experts echoed these sentiments in reactions to the report. One analyst noted that while the pandemic's immediate shocks have faded, structural changes—such as the dominance of franchises and IP-driven content—will define the next decade. "The box office isn't dying; it's evolving," the expert said, pointing to successes in non-traditional formats. However, concerns linger about accessibility, with calls for more affordable pricing to broaden appeal, especially among families and lower-income groups.

Looking ahead to 2029 and beyond, PwC's projections suggest that a full recovery could coincide with technological advancements like virtual reality cinemas or enhanced global distribution networks. Yet, uncertainties remain, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, and potential economic downturns. For instance, ongoing trade frictions between the U.S. and China could further limit Hollywood's access to that lucrative market.

In summary, PwC's report serves as a wake-up call for the film industry, highlighting a recovery that's steady but far from swift. While global box office revenues are on an upward trajectory, reaching pre-COVID parity by 2029 will require strategic pivots, innovation, and perhaps a bit of blockbuster magic. As streaming continues to redefine entertainment consumption, the theatrical experience must reinvent itself to remain a cultural cornerstone. This outlook not only quantifies the challenges but also illuminates paths forward, reminding stakeholders that resilience and adaptability will be key to thriving in this new era of media convergence.

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Read the Full The Hollywood Reporter Article at:
[ https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/box-office-revenue-below-pre-covid-2029-pwc-outlook-report-1236324470/ ]