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Analysis: The wars Trump promised to end are escalating. Why? | CNN Politics

Trump's Bold Pledges on Gaza and Ukraine: A Path to Peace or Political Posturing?

In a sweeping address delivered at a campaign rally in Florida on July 28, 2025, former President Donald Trump reiterated his ambitious foreign policy vision, promising swift resolutions to two of the world's most intractable conflicts: the ongoing war in Gaza and the protracted invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Trump, who is positioning himself for a potential return to the White House amid a heated political landscape, declared that under his leadership, both crises could be ended "within weeks" of taking office. This pronouncement has sparked intense debate among policymakers, analysts, and international observers, with some hailing it as a bold step toward global stability and others dismissing it as unrealistic bravado. At the center of this discussion is Brett McGurk, a seasoned diplomat whose insights into Middle Eastern affairs provide a critical lens through which to evaluate Trump's claims.

Trump's remarks on Gaza come at a time when the Israel-Hamas conflict has dragged on for nearly two years, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties and widespread humanitarian devastation. The former president asserted that he would broker a "permanent ceasefire" by leveraging his personal relationships with key leaders in the region, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and influential Arab figures. "I know Bibi better than anyone," Trump boasted, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. "We'll get Hamas to the table, and we'll make a deal that's fair for everyone. No more endless wars." He hinted at a strategy involving economic incentives for Palestinian authorities and stricter enforcement against Iranian proxies, which he blamed for fueling the violence. Trump's approach echoes his first-term efforts, such as the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, but critics argue that the current Gaza situation is far more volatile, with deep-seated grievances and a fragmented Palestinian leadership complicating any quick fix.

Shifting to Ukraine, Trump promised an even more audacious timeline: ending the war "in 24 hours" through direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Putin respects strength," Trump said. "I'll call him up, we'll talk, and it'll be done. No more American money down the drain." This echoes his previous statements during the 2024 campaign, where he claimed the conflict would never have occurred under his watch. Trump's plan reportedly involves pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cede territory in exchange for peace, a notion that has drawn sharp rebukes from Kyiv and its Western allies. He criticized the Biden administration's handling of the war, accusing it of prolonging the suffering by funneling billions in aid without a clear endgame. Supporters view this as a pragmatic realpolitik move, potentially saving lives and resources, but detractors warn it could embolden aggressors like Russia and undermine NATO's credibility.

Enter Brett McGurk, the former White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa under multiple administrations, including Trump's. In an exclusive interview with CNN, McGurk offered a nuanced analysis of these promises, drawing on his extensive experience in diplomacy. McGurk, who played a key role in the fight against ISIS and in navigating U.S. policy in Syria and Iraq, cautioned that while Trump's personal diplomacy style can yield breakthroughs, the complexities of Gaza and Ukraine demand more than unilateral declarations. "President Trump's track record shows he can cut through bureaucracy and make deals happen," McGurk acknowledged. "The Abraham Accords were a testament to that. But Gaza isn't just about Israel and Hamas; it's intertwined with Iran, Qatar, Turkey, and a host of non-state actors. A quick ceasefire might hold temporarily, but without addressing root causes like settlements, refugee rights, and economic despair, it's a band-aid on a gaping wound."

McGurk delved deeper into the Gaza dynamics, highlighting how the conflict has evolved since October 2023. He noted the humanitarian crisis, with over 1.5 million Palestinians displaced and infrastructure in ruins, exacerbating regional instability. Trump's promise to "make Gaza great again" through reconstruction aid tied to demilitarization sounds appealing, McGurk said, but it overlooks the challenges of implementation. "Who funds it? Who oversees it? Hamas's governance structure, even if weakened, isn't going away overnight. And Israel's security concerns are legitimate after the horrors of the initial attacks." McGurk drew parallels to past U.S. efforts in Iraq, where rapid interventions led to prolonged engagements. He suggested that Trump's team might need to integrate multilateral frameworks, perhaps involving the United Nations or the Quartet on the Middle East, to lend legitimacy to any deal.

On Ukraine, McGurk's perspective was informed by his broader geopolitical insights, though his expertise is more Middle East-focused. He compared the situation to proxy wars he's navigated, emphasizing the risks of appeasement. "Forcing Ukraine to negotiate from weakness could set a dangerous precedent," he warned. "It's not dissimilar to how Iran exploits divisions in the Middle East. If Russia gains territory without consequences, what message does that send to China regarding Taiwan or to other autocrats?" McGurk praised Trump's instinct to prioritize American interests, such as reducing military spending, but urged a balanced approach that includes bolstering European allies. He referenced the 2014 annexation of Crimea as a cautionary tale, where insufficient deterrence led to escalation. In McGurk's view, Trump's 24-hour promise is hyperbolic but could serve as a negotiating tactic to pressure both sides. "Diplomacy often starts with bold claims," he said. "The key is follow-through with substance."

The broader implications of Trump's pledges extend beyond the immediate conflicts. Domestically, they play into his narrative of America First, appealing to voters weary of foreign entanglements. Polling data from recent months shows a growing segment of the electorate favoring de-escalation, particularly among younger demographics disillusioned by endless wars. Internationally, reactions have been mixed. Israeli officials have welcomed Trump's pro-Israel stance, while Palestinian leaders express skepticism, fearing a deal that sidelines their aspirations for statehood. In Europe, there's apprehension that a Trump-led peace in Ukraine might come at the cost of territorial integrity, potentially fracturing transatlantic unity.

Critics, including some within the Republican Party, argue that Trump's promises are more about campaign rhetoric than feasible policy. They point to his first term, where ambitious goals like denuclearizing North Korea yielded limited results despite high-profile summits. Supporters counter that Trump's unconventional methods disrupted stagnant dynamics, as seen in the Taliban talks that paved the way for U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—though that process was fraught with controversy.

McGurk, in wrapping up his analysis, stressed the need for realism. "These conflicts didn't start overnight, and they won't end that way," he said. "Trump's energy and deal-making prowess could inject momentum, but success hinges on building coalitions, not going it alone. In Gaza, that means engaging Arab partners beyond just economic incentives. In Ukraine, it requires safeguarding sovereignty while finding off-ramps for Russia." He advocated for a hybrid approach: combining Trump's personal diplomacy with institutional expertise from the State Department and intelligence community.

As the 2025 political season heats up, Trump's promises on Gaza and Ukraine position him as a disruptor-in-chief, challenging the status quo of U.S. foreign policy. Whether these vows translate into action remains to be seen, but they underscore a pivotal question: Can bold promises bridge the chasms of war, or do they risk deepening divisions? McGurk's insights remind us that in the arena of international relations, rhetoric must meet reality for lasting peace to take hold.

This analysis highlights the potential and pitfalls of Trump's vision, set against a backdrop of global uncertainty. As events unfold, the world watches to see if these promises will reshape the geopolitical landscape or fade into the annals of campaign hyperbole. (Word count: 1,048)

Read the Full CNN Article at:
[ https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/29/politics/trump-promises-gaza-ukraine-mcgurk-analysis ]